The European Commission has published spring economic growth forecasts for the European Union and member states, including Montenegro.
According to Brussels’ forecasts, Montenegro’s GDP willrecover fasterthis year and next year compared with countries in the region. It is expected to recover by 7.1 percent this year after falling by more than 15 percent last year. The European Commission expects Montenegro’s economy to emerge from the pandemic next year, in 2022, on the back of rising consumption and investment, and to grow by a further 6.5 percent.
“Montenegro experienced a very deep recession in 2020 because COVID-19damaged the economy, which depends on tourism, weakening both external and domestic demand. Partial recovery of tourism and investment is forecast in 2021,” the European Commission document says.
Brussels is optimistic about the economic recovery across the region and expects high growth rates in all countries.
“The Serbian economy is forecast to recover strongly in 2021, surpassing its pre-crisis level, mainly driven by investment and private consumption,” the country forecast says.
Brussels also raised its forecast for Slovenia’s economic growth this year. After last year’s 5.5 percent contraction in GDP, growth of 4.9 percent is forecast this year and 5.1 percent in 2022, which will bring growth back to pre-crisis levels. According to the Commission, growth will be driven primarily by domestic consumption.
The European Commission slightly lowered its estimate for Croatia’s economic growth this year to 5 percent, but also significantly raised next year’s estimate to 6.1 percent, when Croatia’s GDP will exceed the pre-crisis level caused by the coronavirus pandemic and will be among the fastest-growing in the EU.
This year, North Macedonia’s economy will grow by 3.7%, and similar GDP growth rates (3.8%) are forecast for next year.
The European Commission forecasts that after the “shock of historic proportions” caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, the EU economy will grow by 4.2 percent in 2021 and by 4.4 percent in 2022. For the eurozone countries, growth of 4.3 and 4.4 percent is forecast for the next two years, respectively.