The European Commission has published spring economic growth forecasts for the European Union and member states, including Montenegro.
According to Brussels’ forecasts, Montenegro’s GDP will recover faster this year and next year compared with countries in the region. It is expected to recover by 7.1 percent this year after falling by more than 15 percent last year. The European Commission expects Montenegro’s economy, on the wave of rising consumption and investment, to recover from the pandemic next year, in 2022, and grow by another 6.5 percent.
“Montenegro experienced a very deep recession in 2020 because COVID-19 damaged the economy, which depends on tourism, weakening both external and domestic demand. A partial recovery in tourism and investment is forecast for 2021,” the European Commission document says.
Brussels is optimistic about the economic recovery across the entire region and expects high growth rates in all countries.
“The Serbian economy is forecast to recover strongly in 2021, surpassing pre-crisis levels, mainly thanks to investment and private consumption,” the country forecast says.
Brussels has also raised its forecast for Slovenia’s economic growth this year. After last year’s GDP contraction of 5.5 percent, growth of 4.9 percent is forecast this year, and 5.1 percent in 2022, which will return growth to pre-crisis levels. According to the Commission, growth will be driven primarily by domestic consumption.
The European Commission has slightly lowered its estimate of Croatian economic growth for this year to 5 percent, but has also significantly raised the estimate for next year to 6.1 percent, when Croatia’s GDP will exceed the pre-crisis level caused by the coronavirus pandemic and will be among the fastest-growing in the EU.
This year, the Macedonian economy will grow by 3.7%, and similar GDP growth rates (3.8%) are forecast for next year.
The European Commission forecasts that after the “shock of historic proportions” caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, the EU economy will grow by 4.2 percent in 2021 or by 4.4 percent in 2022. For the eurozone countries, growth of 4.3 and 4.4 percent is forecast for the next two years, respectively.
“The European economy will show strong growth this year and next year, higher than expected. This will be supported by accelerated vaccination, which in the second half of 2021 will lead to the easing of restrictive measures, as well as the use of European recovery packages,” said the European Commissioner for Economy Paolo Gentiloni.